Mordechai Kedar: Why Trump’s Deal of the Century Will Fail
Barry Nussbaum: Welcome to ATP Report, I'm Barry Nussbaum. Our very special guest is back today, all the way from Israel, Dr. Mordechai Kedar. A 25-year expert; coming from the Israeli Defense Forces Intelligence Division. He is a professor and lecturer at Bar-Ilan University. He is also a very special friend of ATP. Welcome back, Mordechai.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar: Thank you so much for giving me the pulpit.
Barry Nussbaum: So, let's jump right in. There is the Trump deal of the century, and then there is the Bibi Netanyahu deal relating to parts of the Trump deal. In particular, the annexation of certain Israeli territory in historical Judea and Samaria. So, let's kick off the discussion with the Trump plan vs. the Bibi plan.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar: Well, the deal of the century was publicized, and everybody is waiting to see what will happen. The Palestinians already rejected it, not overwhelmingly, and they don't want to speak to the American court. So, on one side, you can already say that this plan is ineffective because if the bride doesn't want to come to the wedding, the groom by himself is not enough.
But let me tell you something, Barry, about the projects in the Middle East. There is a rule which I just made up, but it is true. For any project in the Middle East, the chance that the project will be implemented at the end of the day is one divided by the number of participants to the power of two.
Barry Nussbaum: Interesting rule Mordechai, now you have to explain it to our audience.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar: If you have four states joining together in a project in the Middle East and there are four Middle Eastern countries. The chances that this project will come to its successful end are one divided by four to the power of two, which is one in 16.
Barry Nussbaum: Very tiny.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar: A very low chance means the larger the number of participants lowers the chance of success. On the contrary, if you have one country involved, it's one divided by one to the power of two, which is one. This means the project will be implemented because only one country is involved. This is a rule which works in 98% of the countries in the Middle East.
Barry Nussbaum: So, how does this rule apply, the Mordechai rule to the deal of the century? If you know, who drafted it?
Dr. Mordechai Kedar: Look at the deal of the century, which was tailored by Jared Kushner, more or less. He involved Israel, the PA, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates. I think Kuwait as well, and of course, the United States of America. We counted at least seven or eight parties. So, you can imagine how small the chance is that this thing will be implemented, and the explanation is very easy.
When you need so many countries, the chance that one country will either pick up and go away, the chance they will be angry about something or recalculate is very high because there are many countries involved. Every one of them can put a veto on something. The whole thing can collapse, and this is what happens.
Barry Nussbaum: Why do you think the deal of the century could not happen, or are you now thinking it's not going to happen?
Dr. Mordechai Kedar: The plan, in my humble view, cannot be implemented. Mainly because it was tailored by the Americans. Americans usually think like Americans, not like Middle Easterners. This is why not even one problem, not even one plan, which was planned either in Europe or in America, worked in the Middle East.
People in America and Europe, as bright as they can be, do not understand the culture of the Middle East. They do not know how to talk to people here. They don't know how to listen and how to understand what people tell them.
Barry Nussbaum: So, Mordechai, what is this Middle Eastern culture that Americans don't get?
Dr. Mordechai Kedar: In America, if somebody tells you something, you believe what he says is what he means. In the Middle East, if somebody says something, it has three layers. The upper layer is what he says. The lower layer, which he conceals, is what he means, which could be something different.
The lowest level is what he tries to hide from you. In the Middle East, they are aware of this multi-layered kind of speaking when they listen to you, and they are already thinking about what you are trying to tell them. What you are trying to hide and what you are trying not to tell them. This is how you always speak here in the Middle East, but Americans do not understand it.
They take things at face value. They don't understand that here in the Middle East, it works differently. Even the way people talk to you. So, when Jared Kushner goes to Saudi Arabia, and they tell him something, he believes this is what they mean. He doesn't get the idea that here in the Middle East, they can say one thing, and they mean something else. This is the problem.
Barry Nussbaum: Interesting theory. Thanks for sharing Mordechai Kedar’s analysis of American vs. Middle Eastern negotiation policy and thank you for joining us today on ATP Report. A very special thank you to a friend of American Truth Project, Dr. Mordecai Kedar.
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